March NY world sugar #11 (SBH25) Tuesday closed up +0.30 (+1.42%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH25) closed up +5.50 (+1.00%).

Sugar prices Tuesday posted moderate gains as a weaker dollar and a +2% jump in crude prices (CLF25) sparked short covering in sugar futures.  

On Monday, NY sugar posted a 2-1/2 month low, and London sugar posted a 3-week low.  An improvement in sugar supplies is bearish for prices.  On November 21, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) lowered its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -2.51 MMT, compared to an August forecast of -3.58 MMT.  The ISO also raised its 2023/24 global sugar surplus estimate to 1.31 MMT from an August projection of +200,000 MT.  

Weakness in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is also bearish for sugar prices after the real fell to a record low against the dollar last Friday.  The weaker real encourages export selling by Brazil's sugar producers.

On the positive side is a decline in Brazil's Center-South sugar production.  Last Wednesday, Unica reported that sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region during the first half of November fell -59.2% y/y to 898 MT.  Also, the cumulative 2024/25 Center-South sugar output through mid-November is down -3.0% y/y to 38.274 MMT.  

Drought and excessive heat earlier this year caused fires in Brazil that damaged sugar crops in Brazil's top sugar-producing state of Sao Paulo.  Sugar cane industry group Orplana said that as many as 2,000 fire outbreaks affected up to 80,000 hectares of planted sugarcane in Sao Paulo.  Green Pool Commodity Specialists noted that as much as 5 MMT of sugar cane may have been lost due to the fires.  Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, cut its overall 2024/25 Brazil sugar production estimate Thursday to 44 MMT from a previous forecast of 46 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.  

The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices.  On October 29, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board projected that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production would jump by +18% y/y to 10.35 MMT.  Thailand produced 8.77 MMT of sugar in the 2023/24 season that ended in April.  Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.

In a supportive factor for sugar prices, India's Food Ministry on August 30 lifted restrictions on sugar mills producing ethanol for the 2024/25 year that starts November, which may prolong India's sugar export curbs.  Last December, India ordered sugar mills to stop using sugarcane to produce ethanol for the 2023/24 supply year to boost its sugar reserves.  India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies.  India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season.  However, on October 3, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) said India will have 2 MMT of sugar to export next season and urged the government to lift its current sugar export restrictions.

The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISM) reported on May 13 that India's 2023/24 sugar production from Oct-Apr fell -1.6% y/y to 31.4 MMT.  Also, the ISM on September 26 projected India's 2024/25 sugar production would fall by -2% y/y to 33.3 MMT and that India's 2023/24 sugar reserves will be at 8.4 MMT on September 30, compared with a May projection of 9.1 MMT.  

As a supportive factor for sugar prices, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on August 30 forecasted 2024/25 global sugar production of 179.3 MMT, down -1.1% y/y from 181.3 MMT in 2023/24.  

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released November 21, projected that global 2024/25 sugar production would climb +1.5% y/y to a record 186.619 MMT and that global 2024/25 human sugar consumption would increase +1.2% y/y to a record 179.63 MMT.  The USDA also forecasted that 2024/25 global sugar ending stocks would decline -6.1% y/y to 45.427 MMT.